This phenomenon has hence been termed optimism bias (alternatively: unrealistic optimism, comparative optimism, wishful thinking, or desirability bias e.g., Dricu et al., 2020 Krizan and Windschitl, 2007) and describes irrational confidence in desirable outcomes (e.g., Hollander, 2004 Lench and Ditto, 2008 McGuire, 1960 Weinstein, 1980).įourth, behavioral data show that people project self-attributes to individuals whom they perceive to be close or similar to themselves but use stereotypes for individuals whom they perceive as dissimilar to themselves (Ames, 2004 Dricu et al., 2018). While most of the time advantageous, optimistic human expectancies often surpass the level justified by a rational consideration of the information at hand (Weinstein, 1980 Windschitl and Stuart, 2015): When asked about their future, most people are overly optimistic-with the probability of desirable future events (e.g., having success in one’s job) being overestimated and the probability of undesirable future events (e.g., incurring cancer) being underestimated. Optimistic rather than pessimistic expectancies regarding the future contribute to these effects in important ways (Scheier and Carver, 1992 Seligman and Csikszentmihalyi, 2000). Consequently, the present research reveals that the phenomenon of social optimism bias needs further refinement to adequately address its specific sub-components.Ī positive view of the world is associated with the experience of positive emotions, sociability, as well as mental and physical health (Fox, 2012 Garrett et al., 2014 McNally, 1995). Our data further suggest (f) the existence of qualitatively different social optimism biases biases that can possibly be distinguished by their degree of automaticity or the adoption of a more affective vs. In addition, we demonstrate that (e) despite the availability of objective feedback, both personal and social optimism biases are hard to overcome. Social optimism bias, however, did not correlate with (d) the extent to which the participants identified with a social in-group.

We further found the magnitude of the biases to depend on (c) prior experience in the investigated area. Data from an experiment on anticipated performances in soccer (including 160 participants), revealed (a) comparable magnitudes of personal and social optimism biases, and (b) only partial overlap between personal and social optimism biases. However, commonalities and differences between personal and social forms of optimism bias remain to be addressed. In addition, they show overoptimism toward people or social groups they identify with compared with those they do not identify with ( social optimism bias).

Individuals are more optimistic about their own future than a comparable person’s future ( personal optimism bias).

Unrealistic optimism weinstein 1980